Dr. François Anctil (Université Laval)
Dr. Bryan Tolson (University of Waterloo)
Dr. Aaron Berg (University of Guelph)
Dr. Paulin Coulibaly (McMaster University)
Objective: Explore flood warning based on a hydraulic model with assimilation and hydrological ensemble forecasts, extending the hydrological ensemble prediction system tested in Project 2-2, with an additional vertical component.
Significance: Flood warning relies on threshold-based decision rules that prescribe actions when streamflow exceeds a predefined value. In a deterministic world, the decision to act on forecast information is often guided by experience, especially when water levels are close to a threshold. It is then strictly up to decision makers to interpret the situation based on a qualitative appreciation of the uncertainty (experience). In a probabilistic world, access to a predictive distribution allows a better appreciation of the risks since the probability of exceeding a threshold may be estimated to be, for example, 20% or 70%.
Outcomes: Project 2-4 will extend hydrological ensemble forecasts by issuing a distribution of water level forecasts at each time step.