Project 1-3
Theme 1

Analysis and applicability of future extreme events in regional and local context


Dr. Altaf Arain (McMaster University)


Dr. Thian Gan (University of Alberta)

Dr. Paulin Coulibaly (McMaster University)

Objectives:  Assess the spatial variability of observed and simulated extreme precipitation events in selected regions across Canada and investigate the limitations and applicability of various indices used to describe extreme precipitation events at local scales for both current and future climate.

Significance:  The proposed work will help to determine whether spatial trends in extreme precipitation have been adequately simulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) participating climate models for future climate scenarios and how these simulations may be applied at a local scale.  The extreme precipitation indices will be used in Project 1-5 and Project 4-3 to predict changes to flood prone areas and to evaluate the resilience of storm management infrastructure, respectively.

Outcomes:  The outcomes of this project will include estimates of extreme precipitation indices for current and future conditions for a variety of locations across Canada and an indication of the expected changes for future conditions.   The project will also develop and evaluate new extreme precipitation indices.